There are two factors in quantifying risk: consequence and likelihood. You have only considered consequence, that the share price might drop to 6 cents or it might rise to $1.20. But what is the likelihood of Cooper actually finding anything that has commercial potential among the 50 or so prospects the company has so far identified? Sure, they've had one decent hit and sure, they are operating in a known copper province. So, say they have a 90% chance of not hitting that commercial deposit and a 10% of hitting something they can monetise. You could argue, strictly from a risk perspective, that the company is not far from being fairly priced on what we currently know.
Ian Warland is putting in the hard yards in promoting his company. Genuine respect for his efforts. But there needs to be walk as well as talk and to date the drill bit has not done him many favours, in my view.
I'm continuing to punt that IW and his team will come up with something commercial but it is what it is.
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