I've been one of KLL's biggest cheersquad supporters.. but...$45 million for 20ktpa is steep, especially if this comes with a CR attached. Hope this is going to be fully debt/cashflow funded.
More quietly, the model sneaks in Operating cost per tonne up 40% for the entire life of project, which is more than just a short time surge according to them. Whether this is a case of them extrapolating out to the future like their SOP estimate, or it's them admitting like SO4, and like all the others like AMN and APC will eventually have to, that the WA SOP companies were all too enthusiastic. Would have been nice to see the 90ktpa remodeled for the new OPEX, and how much cashflow we expect in FY22.
Also, using $585US for the long term forecast for potash and extrapolating it out, just not a fan of using optimistic numbers based on this spike. The so called commodities superbubble (or supercycle) could be over quicker than we know it with how thin a sheet of ice it's on.They have a habit of doing this, in March 2020, they extrapolated the low aussie dollar of 0.65 then, to up their valuation for the whole project.. now we've pumped up the SOP estimate from 480's to 585. I'm not suggesting anything nefarious, just their valuations are reactionary and perhaps a little dressed up, good to see they've made the long term dollar estimate realistic again.
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Surely we'd be better served by conservative estimates so that we meet the targets when they come due.
Finally want to note, posters above clapping at the 70M EBITDA average... we were supposed to do that with 90ktpa, at a supposed lower price model. It's no surprise this is tanking today, higher opex, optimistic modelling, and more capex, to get to the.. um, same promised result.Just a little underwhelmed. I continue to hold, but my sentiment is now hold not Buy, until they confirm they can fund this through debt without diluting us yet again, as someone said above, this is looking like Fast Cap Raise Tony if they do raise.Hope the news of successful commissioning drops in the next few weeks, and we start getting the cashflow to fund these expansion projects (because a 20ktpa, $45m addition, is not a base case..)
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