So many "not held " posting at 1.7c. All so uninformed !!! And then there is kmtw who is apparently long stock and happy the price goes lower and encouraging it with delight!!
Sadly ( or happy for us buyers ) we are at 1.7c. A Market cap of $55m Aud or about $37m USD!
Worth less than the price paid for Lifx in 2018 of about $70m AUD Since then: (1) Ebitda has moved closed to flat. And would have been +ve in March without a error and chip shortage ( will be positive from Oct ) (2) Products have been developed with higher ( 60-70 %) margin ( beam and switch ) and losing Skus ( tile ) binned (3) Manufacturing costs have drop significantly and a second manufacturer has come on line. With more to come (4) Expansion of sales channels with a lot more to come when supply can be guaranteed. (5) Partnerships with Amazon, google, arlo......etc etc. (6) " Real " revenue 2X 2020 as a guess. Coming in at about $45m AKA 1.2 X MC basis 1.7c. (7) Debt paid down to less than $5m. Even without entitlement offer. (8) Smart home space grown 18% pa yoy (9) Lifx the premium product...always compared to Philips Hue. GE never mentioned. (10) PFG loans secured and ability to grow as rotation occurs.
FWIW, the entitlement offer ( EO) was to stop retail moaning that instos and sophs got a sweet deal at 2.5c. The ASX required a cap raise of $6.5m to meet the next 12 month of business to return to trading. They needed to assume a zero EO up take. The EO was to be used to pay off Eastfield. But PFG agreed to cover that payment if the EO failed.
It looks like failing without a major announcement .PFG will pay the debt. Its will mean less dilution but also debt and interest payments to PFG.
This is all priced into projections.
Lights/ strips and switches continue to sell well , costs have been cut significantly, and the business moves forward without a need for the EO. The extension of 3 days was a standard occurrence on the ASX. I am sure the coy didn't expect people to buy at 2.5c when they can buy at 1.7c.
CONCLUSION.
LIFX is worth a lot more than $37M USD to someone. Given their cloud and data is US based and their chip is premium quality.
BUD Price at posting:
1.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
