This is a very exciting time for CVN shareholders with three...

This is a very exciting time for CVN shareholders with three 'company changing' wells to be drilled in the next four months or so.

CVN said on 6 January that the first, the Buffalo well is at 804m on its way to the oil (fingers crossed) which will be at the 3200m to 3300m depth.

On my calculations the Buffalo result should be around early Feb, but that can change.

It has been a good week for oil on world markets. Despite a small fall in price last night, Exxon, Chevron, Marathon, Devon and a host of other huge world oil companies hit 12 month highs. So the outlook is considered favourable. If Putin invades the Ukraine even more so for oil prices.

CVN's 12 mth high is 36c so at 34.5c yesterday we are close too.

To me, it was a telling day yesterday as both CVN and Advance PLC (CVN's partner in the Buffalo well) had fallen sharply the day before, so we needed a good day. The 1.5c CVN rise and 20p rise by Advance achieved that.

Supposedly Buffalo has a 86% chance of being a commercial success and if it can produce the expected 31m barrels the CVN share price should get by my estimates to around 47c. Of course, no one knows for sure.

I note CVN is a very difficult stock to trade from here. When to buy and sell is dependent on (broadly) binary results from the three wells and market price reactions to those results (markets may get too excited or pessimistic from a well result) while a CVN capital raising is potentially lurking.

I will be fascinated to see if the CVN share price can get to 40c just before we know the Buffalo result. If the well is truly an 86% chance of success with an expected 31m barrel find I think it can.