CVN 2.50% 20.5¢ carnarvon energy limited

Hi Aover, Nope...pretty sure I got the point. 100% ownership =...

  1. 146 Posts.
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    Hi Aover,

    Nope...pretty sure I got the point. 100% ownership = total ownership, calling the shots (as operator) AND paying 100% of the bill. I think $5/bbl was estimated as a development cost for 31mil bbl, which makes $150mil development bill.
    If all goes well, and development proceeds without issue, then I am with you that we would be 100% owners/shot callers on the O&G equivalent of getting two Yahtzees in a row.

    Personally, I think $150mil price tag for subsea well/s tied back to an FPSO development is a bit light considering 1 well alone can be ~$50-75mil without any problems but they're the experts so let's go with it.

    However my point, which I think you missed, was that if drilling has issues (even a single day delay can cost $0.5-1mil), oil price tanks, FX bombs, construction has delays, FPSO start up has issues, wells fail to produce at assumed rates,...blah blah, whatever other success assumptions don't eventuate, then we are 100% at risk of losing some or all of the farm from this $150mil (i.e. greater than the current value of the company) investment. Some of these risks are reduced due to the previous development and offset data, but not eliminated. Other risks are just par for the course and ever present.

    Maybe they go for it and I'll be eating my foot with sauce for dinner. Who knows. As you said, we're all watching this space!

    All my opinions only, DYOR.
    Last edited by coopernic: 20/02/18
 
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