maybe a few people just need to take a few breaths, I think MLS...

maybe a few people just need to take a few breaths, I think MLS may be undervalued on lac rainy, but don’t think we should be in the hundreds of millions MC.

comparison with RNU’s siviour project isn’t a completely fair comparison, obviously RNUs RESERVE is a factor larger than our resource, and it’s in Australia, but both AUS and CAN are t1 jurisdictions for resource projects. And comparing an ASX listed company against a CSX company likewise isn’t really a fair comparison.

the basis of my opinion is the ever increasing demand for PSG, which forecast projects in the pipeline can’t meet will continue to drive up price due to supply shortage… look at spod price and lit carbonate/monohydrate prices. Graphite has done the same thing. Scoping study economics had PSG sale price at US$885/t. Yet market data (based upon average concentrate percentage and flake sizes) is closer to $1500. So profit margin has gone from a little over USD$400/t to around US$1100, which modified FCF would put NPV around USD$250m(AUD$375).

now PSG test work, if successful, will allow PFS with PSG production (which spot price has reciprocally increased) with fair expectation that more favourable margins can be acheived. 4km of open strike yet to be explored, so if a large scale successful drill program was undertaken, then they could theoretically achieve a JORC reserve with an out of ground value worth billions, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves as it’s in the ground and yet to be found.

take off MLS cash position and we have an EV of $11m , which is around 3% of Lac rainy true current NPV against scoping figures adjusted for current sale value. (Which discounts ALL other projects). For a company seeking to produce an in-demand EV resource in a favourable jurisdiction, optionally for resource expansion and high grade graphite concentrates likely able to produce 99.5% PSG, I’d say it would be a fairer assessment to have EV around say 10% of NPV (MC 55m) which still discounts all other projects.

is successful PSG is produced then PFS can proceed and intrinsic value will lift. Nobody should be thinking “how soon can we get this out of the ground” we’re too far off guessing, but not before 2026 if they plan to change course to PSG from graphite concentrate.

add to the fact it’s a high demand resource with A social and political push to EV tech and renewables, this hype can favourably move MC above fair value, in some cases by a large margin (consider CXO trading a MC 8x above their NPV at peak and LKE trading 2-3 times above NPV).

long term prospect looks good, but there’s a lot of de-risking required, A LOT of assumptions which all need to be proven for fair value to rise. There’s out of control inflation and recession fears looming, less appetite for speculative investments. This could 20+ bag by 2030 BUT not a chance in hell it’s 10 bagging in the next 2 years.

happy to be challenged on my point of view, just my thoughts on the company.

GLTAH