That was easily the best TFL quarterly I have seen!!
The full year results are quite good as well, with my projection of $67m in revenue being pretty much spot on.
It's also very clear it could have been much better without COVID decimating Q2 results and flow on into Q3 for Poultry.
Dairy
Well, the Dairy division takes BOG honours for 2020 and you can see the progress being made through the year.
The Betta acquisition is starting to look like a real winner and has given the division the scale to be consistently profitable.
Taking an average of Q3 and Q4 to allow for some seasonality, I think we can expect $1m Operating EBITDA from the division at a minimum and without factoring 15 - 20% growth.
I expect $37m in revenue for the division this year and $4.5m operating EBITDA
Any new product ranging decisions would likely see this growth increase further.
Poultry
A solid year for the division, especially considering Q2 was horrible and Q3 was also affected.
I expect $41m in revenue for the division this year and hoping we can get operating EBITDA back up to a level where we hit $2m (averaging $500k a quarter).
The positive outlook sounds good and the ready to eat range could really help enhance margins.
Corporate
Appears like they have managed costs as best as they could, albeit I can't recall any salary reductions in Q2 like a lot of other businesses.
This is the base operating cost of the entity and will always drag down the performance above.
They just need to ensure limited growth in expenses and any growth is far exceeded by additional EBITDA.
Looks like Wasabi revenue sits in this division, so would be good to see some growth in this segment, hopefully everyone wants to try some Wasabi when Tokyo takes centre stage later this year.
An e-commerce Manager is essential and can hopefully drive further growth with some smart gifting offerings, including with Corporates.
Outlook
This was probably the most positive section for me.
Chicken has started the year strong, with higher margin products leading the way.
Dairy is going well and has just started to get traction with some export markets.
Both divisions have ranging discussions which could lead to further growth.
Super Premium strategies also being further developed to generate further margin.
Online sales haven't slowed down, which is great news.
I guess I am expecting about $78m in revenue and $2.5m in operating EBITDA for 2021 as a baseline, with a few upside opportunities to grow both revenues and margins, so let's see what can be achieved.
Well done to all at TFL on a solid 2020 in challenging circumstances.
Still plenty to do though, looking forward to seeing the progress made in 2021.
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