Ann: Business Interruption Update, page-61

break it all up ppl.....investments have to mimic the portfolio durations, and geographic spread. MV? what % of the portfolio is that? who cares...its a big global beast, and everyone in Oz is driving again...

Ash is right, if the overall investments have a longer duration, heaven help when yields normalise, theyll lose half their face value

problem with QBE is "simple" (lol - couldnt help myself), attritional ratio (claims ratio dwarfs everything else and is testament to the poor quality portfolios) is HIGH, VERY high vs peers + expense ratio is one of the highest and it pays the agents wayyy too much again = poor performing portfolios ( COR is shot. consistent high claims ratios across the board which has never been remedied), squeezed by the cost of acqu (exp + commission).

Shafted at every angle. Ash's hope is the premium rise (thats all you have now, in the absence of poortfolio remediation) to plug the "void" so to speak, my money is on the same underperformance will always continue as you also fight the constant wage pressures, inflation (on policy costs) and the biggest factor - across the board poor performing portfolios.

I liken investing in QBE to someone buying a franchise in a underperforming region (under average weekly sales), who is squeezed by low traffic (bad portfolios), but faced with increases wage costs every year (expense ratio) and has to market like mad to get any foot traffic (commissions to the big boys Aons and Marsh's of the world) - squeeze gets harder every year. They either have to sell up shop and relocate (divest the "poorest portfolios or hide their sins by going on the acquisition trail again (bring back Frank!! )), or in this case - lift premiums and hope customers dont walk off to the nearest alternative competitor....

19 feb....cant wait.