Their $3.2m EBITDA is after the expenses incurred on integration issues, AND the $2m hit from client remediation (likely covered by insurance)
You can't have a reduced EBITDA (increased opex), then expect additional capex to consume remaining cash flow. They're either expensing things, or they're capitalising some form of project work (unlikely). Unless there's some additional capex we're not aware of (very unlikely, given how straight mgment are with their P&L), or increased WC requirements, I can't see a reason for -ve cash flow - nor does it explain the dividend increase (albeit minor).
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Speaking more generally to the downgrade:
If you look at initial guidance ($4-5m EBITDA), this is about $1.3m off the midpoint. They've listed two issues of ~$500k, which accounts for the majority of that fall in EBITDA.
Not great, given they're developing a habit of missing guidance a few times, but it's been in a relatively short timespan (for a small-ish business acquiring even smaller businesses)
On a separate note, this is not being priced in (rightly or wrongly):
"In addition, we expect the investment and integration program we have undertaken in this half will allow the company to make up a significant amount of the 1H23 profit shortfall in the full year 2023 result."
I'm not entirely sold the biz can simply make up lost earnings (not incl $2m insurance claim), but they may just returned to their previous run-rate - which is what matters.
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