If I were going to write a piece on COGSTATE (CGS)... I would go with something like the following... a little more upbeat?
No advice intended to investors of course..... this is a very speccy spec.... highly illiquid....
Bash it to bits if you want.... just having a bit of fun.
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Another episode of bsh bs... "brought to you by bsh and the letters C - G - S"
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Thursday, 8th January 2015
COGSTATE BOLSTERS INVESTOR CONFIDENCE - AS PROMISED
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COGSTATE (CGS) - This forgotten little gem might finally get some love from investors.... Why?
With Australian BIOTECHS and PHARMA stocks firing in recent weeks... it may be a case of...
- COGSTATE - "in the right place at the right time".
After all... it is not every day a company can claim revenue increases of 48% in its key field.
COGSTATE (CGS) has been there all along - the quiet achiever - quietly "facilitating" the research and trials of some much bigger names.
A primary focus of COGSTATE is in helping with the search to cure a terrible disease - Alzheimer's.
Left and right, BIOTECH and PHARMA investors are posed with a choice as to which hopeful they will back, which hopeful will see a measure of success in searching for a cure.
However, simple questions highlight a basic factor of the search - a factor often overlooked by investors.
Question 1 - Clinical trials and potential cures are one thing - but - how does one measure and monitor the cognitive health of subjects in such trials?
Question 2 - How does one create a baseline from which to gauge improvement or decline in cognition?
This is where COGSTATE (CGS) can step in - with its suite of cognition tests - and a wealth of valuable cognitive data collected over many, many years.
It is this data /experience and suite of tests that enable many of the clinical trials related to cognition... trials that investors in other companies follow so closely.
A visit to COGSTATE's extremely comprehensive website, and a tour of the news and reports contained - sheds much light on the professionalism, skills and scope of this group.
With staff in Australia, Europe, Asia, Canada and the USA - mixing with big names in the BIOTECH / PHARMA fields.... it seems only one thing has help COGSTATE's valuation back.
Up until now perhaps.
http://cogstate.com/
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WHAT HAS HELD COGSTATE BACK?
This brings us to the COGSTATE - "MONEY side of things"
One would assume that a facilitator... a middle man... a broker - should always be profitable.
COGSTATE is a facilitator of trials - of cognitive data - of baselines - of subjects to be included in clinical trials.
How can such a helpful facilitator fail to be profitable?
A delicate subject indeed (profiting from an illness - but perhaps a necessary evil in the search for a cure).
It seems that a few early stumbles and loss of focus have seen the market lose faith in COGSTATE's ability to generate consistent revenues - and ultimately profits.
Even recently being cash backed by the world-renowned Dolby family (yes... "The" Dolby family) with a significant placement at 40 cents.... COGSTATE has seen slip from the markets interest... due to its tentative steps.
http://cogstate.com/a-problem-worth-solving-an-interview-with-david-dolby/#.VK51t3uAkUU
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(All Cogstate images and data are the exclusive property of Cogstate)
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SO - WHAT HAS CHANGED AT COGSTATE - IN OUR HUMBLE VIEW?
Basically - COGSTATE financial "numbers" are starting to look liking making a turn to that beautiful colour - GREEN.
1) Cash burn appears to have begun to stabilize.
2) Cost of sales looks to be nearing a much improved balance.
3) Axom Sports (a neat but capital and labour intensive COGSTATE venture) has recently been cut free.... improving COGSTATE overheads whilst still allowing the possibility of revenues to be returned to COGSTATE by Axom Sports new owners.
4) COGSTATE's focus has been firmly concentrated where it excels - in the field of clinical trials - and the volumes of revenue are booming.
5) Sports related concussion injuries are continuing to make the news - and COGSTATE is a significant player in that field also - mixing with some in the top levels of selected sports.
6) The Aussie dollar has fallen significantly in recent months - which may improve COGSTATE earnings from offshore trials. This is yet to be confirmed by COGSTATE.
7) At 25 cents per share - COGSTATE is trading at an undiluted market capitalization of just $25 million - a pittance amongst the valuations of "the company it keeps".
8) PE ratio hunters may be taken aback by where COGSTATE stands. We will let you make your own assessment.
9) A subdued - yet bullish - COGSTATE report was released to the market today. Do we smell a possible swing to profitability in coming months?
10) Cogstate has hinted at the release of an FDA device / app in the future. Three letters which often inspire a little greed in investors. no major details released as yet.... but FDA fever may just add a few cents to the CGS share price
Some excerpts from the latest update are included below.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150108/pdf/42vx45p4v01ys6.pdf
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(All Cogstate images and data are the exclusive property of Cogstate)
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(All Cogstate images and data are the exclusive property of Cogstate)
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IN CONCLUSION
This may be the time to collect whatever an illiquid COGSTATE (CGS) market allows for.
With just 99,000,000 CGS shares issued - and 81.% of that number held by the Top 20 - collecting may prove a task for those that would like to secure a "decent" holding.
To be watched like a hawk for updates - and not for those without a stomach for volatility
We rate COGSTATE (CGS) as a very definite: SPEC BUY
To finish... Eddie Murphy of course.... being giving some wise words from the gents at Duke & Duke.
Remember... a facilitator - a broker - should always be doing well - no matter value of what they trade in.
Could this be a case of COGSTATE Trading Places - "Market wall flower" to "Market darling"?
(Forgive the volume on the clip... volume is more than a little quiet!)
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bsh
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Last
$1.72 |
Change
-0.020(1.15%) |
Mkt cap ! $292.0M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.75 | $1.76 | $1.70 | $92.54K | 53.51K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 7005 | $1.71 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.74 | 158428 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 7005 | 1.710 |
1 | 3815 | 1.700 |
1 | 9985 | 1.650 |
2 | 5357 | 1.625 |
4 | 4383 | 1.620 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.740 | 158428 | 1 |
1.750 | 1700 | 1 |
1.760 | 800 | 1 |
1.770 | 7064 | 1 |
1.790 | 1789 | 1 |
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