PET 0.00% 2.5¢ phoslock environmental technologies limited

Ann: Business Update, page-19

  1. 1,799 Posts.
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    Timing of contracts and revenue recognition around reporting periods can often have large short term impacts on the share price - as highlighted by the trading this morning. For PET this is magnified by a very high PE/market cap based on where it is today and the recent confirmation on guidance, which has been missed by a reasonable degree given it was confirmed in Dec.

    This presents two options for the investor or potential investor to consider:
    1. Management credibility. Do we believe management? Were they too optimistic? Does the present forecast for 2020 need to be discounted based on the above? What made them so confident in Dec - are they not close enough to the contracts to make an accurate assessment?
    2. Opportunity: The other side of the coin is that these contracts will come through and timing differences coupled with short term fear can create great medium term buying opportunities. If we ignore the reporting period it should make no difference. Also the GP margin remains strong and the outlook very high. This should easily have +100% EPS growth in 2020 even if forecasts have a conservative lens.

    I know a few people are already hard wired in their view on both sides but things do change day to day, week to week, month to month etc so it pays to have an open mind and reassess when new information comes to hand. GLTAH

 
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