BPT (ASX) Ann: Business Update

Originally posted by Cmmdties: ↑

I think what we are seeing with the oiler recovery is a disconnect between markets and real energy prices. Look at the pure US shale plays they tracked even higher on Friday! Continental up 14%
However WTI actually dropped below $18 on Friday. That is the price for May contracts whilst what Filo refers to is the June contracts.
https://markets.*.com/commodities/news/oil-price-plunges-dismal-outlooks-global-demand-continue-coronavirus-opec-2020-4-1029102492
This all comes back to the oil contango in place. It is an indicator of real stress in the market and the possibility of immediate collapse within that market.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-market-in-super-contango-underlines-storage-fears-as-coronavirus-destroys-crude-demand-2020-04-17
There is still 2 working weeks left of April. 2 weeks before OPEC+ even begin their cuts. There has been a rally in magnitudes close to the drop. Is that based upon realities or is that based upon people seeing value compared to previous highs and now FOMO kicking in. Record numbers of people have been searching how to buy stocks. New retail money is flooding in in droves.
Hell. Oil ETF's are flagging huge inputs from new investors that probably don't understand futures contracts and the cost required to change these monthly contracts as time goes on. They just see oil at a low price and think jump onboard we will make money when it goes up. They most likely won't.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-fund-move-giant-123440962.html
What I am trying to say is try to look past the excitement/fear on the surface and dig deeper into the underlying issues/resolutions.
My opinion is there is no real reason for markets to be bullish currently so I am hedging my positions either way as I cannot explain the market rally. Let's focus on O&G though. Is there a reason that US energy stocks should be rallying or are people ignoring the real data?

Expand

I agree, there is a long way down yet. I love BPT but sold out at $1.74 and see no reason to buy into this rally, it will be back under $1

Originally posted by Cmmdties: ↑

I think what we are seeing with the oiler recovery is a disconnect between markets and real energy prices. Look at the pure US shale plays they tracked even higher on Friday! Continental up 14%
However WTI actually dropped below $18 on Friday. That is the price for May contracts whilst what Filo refers to is the June contracts.
https://markets.*.com/commodities/news/oil-price-plunges-dismal-outlooks-global-demand-continue-coronavirus-opec-2020-4-1029102492
This all comes back to the oil contango in place. It is an indicator of real stress in the market and the possibility of immediate collapse within that market.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-market-in-super-contango-underlines-storage-fears-as-coronavirus-destroys-crude-demand-2020-04-17
There is still 2 working weeks left of April. 2 weeks before OPEC+ even begin their cuts. There has been a rally in magnitudes close to the drop. Is that based upon realities or is that based upon people seeing value compared to previous highs and now FOMO kicking in. Record numbers of people have been searching how to buy stocks. New retail money is flooding in in droves.
Hell. Oil ETF's are flagging huge inputs from new investors that probably don't understand futures contracts and the cost required to change these monthly contracts as time goes on. They just see oil at a low price and think jump onboard we will make money when it goes up. They most likely won't.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-fund-move-giant-123440962.html
What I am trying to say is try to look past the excitement/fear on the surface and dig deeper into the underlying issues/resolutions.
My opinion is there is no real reason for markets to be bullish currently so I am hedging my positions either way as I cannot explain the market rally. Let's focus on O&G though. Is there a reason that US energy stocks should be rallying or are people ignoring the real data?

Expand

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	33547	$1.29

No.

Vol.

Price($)

33547

$1.29

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.31	70240	7

Price($)

Vol.

No.

$1.31

70240

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	33547	1.290
2	93402	1.285
1	20000	1.275
1	787	1.270
1	10000	1.265

No.

Vol.

Price($)

33547

1.290

93402

1.285

20000

1.275

787

1.270

10000

1.265

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.305	70240	7
1.310	420098	19
1.315	51739	3
1.320	216306	15
1.325	52329	7

Price($)

Vol.

No.

1.305

70240

1.310

420098

1.315

51739

1.320

216306

1.325

52329

(20min delay)
Last $1.29		Change 0.010(0.78%)		Mkt cap ! $2.942B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.29	$1.31	$1.29	$10.13M	7.804M

Ann: Business Update, page-275

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