There are so many variables involved that any accurate prediction for where the market will be is really a mug's game.
FWIW I agree with all the above points and am equally gloomy about being past the worst of it. The biggest issue is if the developed world suffers a significant second wave requiring a second lock down.
The race is on to see if our detection and prevention strategies will be adequate, or if we can develop a vaccine in time.
History would suggest a second wave of a pandemic will arrive about 6-12 months after the first. My guess would be October/November as the northern hemisphere heads into the winter. We wont have a vaccine up and running by then, testing and tracing might be adequate enough - I don't know. Happy to be completely wrong, and don't put a high percentage on that guess being right.
The knock on effects to a fragile economy barely getting over the first wave, and governments with no good options to counter a second lockdown would be brutal.
I think we would be looking a lows below what we saw in March.
You cant accurately predict, but you can adequately prepare !
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