Ann: Business Update, page-10

From FNArena: (UBS is the only broker quoted on FNArena that covers SHV.)

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET
UBS	22/03/2023	1	Buy	$4.90	24.05%
COMMENTARY The nonpareil almond crop, which constitutes around 50% of Select Harvests' overall crop, has been impacted by a poor bloom period and wet growing conditions in 2022, explains UBS. As a result of these woes, management has cut its volume forecast to -25-35% below the consensus expectation. The broker conservatively assumes the balance of the crop (pollinator varieties) will suffer a similar volume impact and lowers its target to $4.90 from $5.05. Management noted improving prices and is expecting $7.25-7.70/kg for FY23, above the $6.80 received in FY22. Buy. FORECAST UBS forecasts a full yearFY22dividend of0.00cents and EPS ofminus -43.00cents. UBS forecasts a full yearFY23EPS of19.00cents.

Some-one with better skills at analysis might be able to find a pattern in the price chart below. There may be a relationship with the estimated or actual crop size - certainly not the weather, nor the asset backing. Much of it looks to be random or in other words market sentiment. Which is basically what UBS's target price is: guesswork, possibly educated, but more likely just a reversion to near the 20-year average.