"It seems to be that BWX , and before it WNB are in a crowded market / businesses. The supermarkets and the Chemist / pharmacy retail chains are ‘head to head’ in trying to capture the higher margins that beauty products have in the past provided. I think the market is fundamentally over provided."
Goto had very high margins when it got bought. Still didn't justify the price that BWX paid which was way too much, but there are good margins to be had in beauty if the brand name is strong. For Sukin, the brand name isn't strong i would argue. There are any number of cheap "natural" and faux natural brands. Is there really $115m of Goodwill on BWX's books? If so, that surely needs to be written down as well.
Some very good analysis on this thread dispersed among the financially illiterate ones. "Write off the debt", "It was $4.50 before so it must be good at this price"
Personally i think Sukin and GoTo have some value. Either a huge cap raise at a very low price, or debtors will call it in and those two brands will be flogged off. Really rough estimate, if Sukin had no debt it should be worth about $80m assuming 15x and industry average margins. GoTO maybe the same if their financial performance is the same as when it got bought a couple of years ago.
I really cant see Andalou Naturals, Mineral Fusion, FLora and Fauna being worth hardly anything. I think collectively BWX paid around $80m for them. I remember them hyping up Andalous NAturals when they bought it, and i think in their commentary they said it was something like the biggest natural brand in the USA. Ludicrous...its revenue was something like $50 million. Yet nobody went "hang on, the biggest natural brand in the USA sells less than Sukin in Australia"? BWX's commentary that accompanied each report were truly magnificent fiction, but its all the analysts seemed to read.
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