The drills / grades / lengths / at surface appear to be substantial.
If we made those as a green fields explorer, announced with discovery drill holes, it might be fever pitch here.
We have the opportunity to accumulate, as maybe some disgruntled longs (54m) welcome the new arrivals (up to 100m) to the register at 7c. I dont think the buyers yesterday at 9-10-11-12 really got it wrong, just that they are swamped with the old holders seeing a sudden rise out of its slump, and with the 13m or so of the placement that maybe part old holders swapping.
As i read it, tranche 1 placement 13.4m is released on 28 /3, and the remaining tranche 2 , 29m on GM, 2/ 5 along with vendors 57m
So if you were an existing holder, and took part, you could swap in lou of replacement scrip on the 28th. And if you were just an existing holder not understanding the value equation of seeing 100m shares dilute your registry, you took a handy profit out of the slump it was in. And then there is the fear of the supply, that may cause some to anticipate the decline to the CR level, to trade the swap.
So there is a balance to be determined here, on how much of the market discovers this, inbetween cycles of additional supply coming to market. But wash it all out, and the value looks good imo for a sector bet. And when you have a new sector acquisition, you attract more moths to your flame than you were dealing with the status quo of a regular incumbent CR. Hence there is the market discovery factor as well, which stacks the buy side, while supply fears stack the sell side for a window of accumulate opportunity as i see it.
Current shares on issue 54m
+ 43m placement +(42.8m vendor (a,b)+ 14.3m vendor (c) Jorc. (low hurdle) )= 154m total
Not investment advice
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