Steve, Looking at this post.. Quoted:"It’s nothing like what you...

Steve,

Looking at this post..

Quoted:

"It’s nothing like what you have suggested. $GWR C1 cost A$120/t excludes royalties of ~A$17/t and freight US$32/t.AIC of A$180/t, or A$216mpa of cost. Therefore @ 1.2mtpa makes $57mpa (100%) fcf. $GWR @ 70% now ($40mpa), @ max 82.5% ($47mpa) next year.

then in July he was pretty on the mark..

"Actually, I used US$214/t for $GWR JQtr, but that was June avg price. So, Apr/May/June $180/$206/214(x2) = US$203/t - $30/t freight / 0.77 = A$224/t received. C1 A$110/t + A$20/t royalties = A$130/t AIC.(($224-$130)x220kt)x70% = A$14.5m FCF = $25m cash eoq."

Actual 23,745

Let's assume we get as low as US120, it's looking like your figures hold up well..

Interesting on JD' post on
"FEX has a hedging in starting October for one year at a $200+ USD per ton premium"

This means those paying on the hedge are betting against this market..

I am still of the mind that we have the Chinese playing games but with the advent of most of the industrialised nation's kicking of HUGE infrastructure spends. That we will see a bounce.

I need to see what stockpiles of steel look like..
Also, I am not seeing any major down prices in Rebar futures into the next year.

Noted, Car manufacturers are slowing up production due to chip shortages and other components.

While we see profit takers showing up in the thread..
I am still feeling this story has a bit to play out before you can cry wolf..

Sub .20 would be a steal..