Ann: Cabinda Phosphate Fertilizer Plant Enroute to Angola, page-403

Our product sale price is based on the TSP price. I haven't been able to find a site that provides a chart going back beyond just 5 years so I created one using World Bank pink sheet data of average yearly prices. The green line is the $422 price used in the DFS as a base case (average of previous 15 years). The red line is the rising floor price - ignoring the corona virus spike low. The black line shows the trend as I see it. Inflation had been quite low since the 2009 GFC but has been around 10% over the last year and is likely to be at least 5% this year so the floor price and price trend might pick up a bit from this year as a result. The last point on the chart is last month's price rather than this year's average because we won't have this year's average until after December.
If the price picks back up from a point above the green line, then the base case NPV would prove conservative. Based on my price trend line, iIt looks like $450 could be the average price over the next few years, moving up to $500 beyond that. DFS Base case NPV using $422 is A$300mill for MNB's 85% share which equates to 33cps on a fully diluted share base (diluted for all listed and unlisted options and performance rights). If all options were exercised, the company would have another $16mill cash, part of which could be used to advance the green ammonia. Next year, the DFS forecasts A$30mill cash surplus. Based on this chart, I'm pretty comfortable with the base case NPV and 33cps target based only on the DFS project.