Fully agree there chuk, also many may have been selling the...

Fully agree there chuk, also many may have been selling the shares to buy the options, putting further pressure on the share price as pedini said.

IMO the option is probably worth about 1.6c at the current MNB sp. However investors are willing to pay up to 2.4c mainly because there is little supply.

I base that 1.5c on the previous option MNBOA’s price history - it was a 15c option vs MNBOB being 7c

The most recognised financial model for option pricing is the Black-Scholes. In fact MNB (and most companies) use this to price options issued to Directors for tax reasons. I’ve put an online calculator link below.

The only variables in the calculator are volatility and interest rate, the interest rate is usually close to the long term bond rate - say 4% (using 1 or 2% more/less makes little difference to the calc). The variable that makes the biggest difference is volatility.

I found looking at MNBOA vs MNB historic trades, a volatility of 65% worked fairly well. As the share price neared the 15c exercise price, using a volatility of 90-100% was closer to what MNBOA traded at. In fact at a SP of 15c, the option varied between 5 to 7 cents even though it only had around 1 year of time value left.

Of course MNBOA expired out of the money with not many being exercised.

https://www.mystockoptions.com/black-scholes.cfm