I agree with this, but applying this to where we thought the risk of funding last time was low with the $26m term "shit" right after the Carrinho offtake was secured, then MNB pivoted in its financing strategy for a completely new path of financing which resurrected the ... risk of funding again.
Given that it is taking rather long (or at least not shorter than average) for the IDC loan and its fixation on MNB meeting a South African customer, my guess is that the IDC probably doesn't like the concentration risk in having only 1 customer in a high risk country (Carrinho/Angola), and thus might require MNB to ink another 1 or 2 deals officially before granting the loan (like Biocom and /or a South African customer, the latter of which who is probably perceived as lower risk in IDC's eyes due to the country/jurisdiction it operates in).
For those who aren't yet aware, concentration risk is a significant risk in conducting a business. It sounds great and all to have 1 (or 2) big customer in shining armor to buy all what you produce, but when someone walks away, you will simply crumble into pieces.
I do note the point that you raised on risk/reward tolerance which is fair and sound, but in all due respect, the narrative from yourself over the last 2 years has been as if this thing were a low-risk, very-easy-to-raise-fund-because-look-at-the-NPV kind of investment. What has eventuated conclusively shows that it is not, and the funding risk for this very phosphate project is still a significant risk, and the funding risk for GA is definitely beyond significant compared to the phosphate. The narrative from MNB over the last 2 years has also caught many investors off guard (myself included) over the actual risks that the company was facing, including plant completion risk (termination of provider), funding risk, etc. We simply perceiced the risk lower than it actually has been, hence so many of LT holders here bought at high prices.
In no reasonable universe is a company having only one official customer (who is still under just a binding MoU and not a fully formal sales agreement contract) and having received not a single cent yet a medium risk investment. The fact that we get to this stage has definitely de-risked its profile to a significant extent, but it still remains a pretty high risk investment, objectively speaking. The Biocom and South African deals, if both not eventuate for whatever reasons we are not aware, might put an end to the IDC loan. If that happens, it will be catastropic.
The bold will be rewarded handsomely only if they take the measured risks, that's undoubtedly the case. I hope (or rather, expect) that they pull it off this time in 2024!
Regarding Lindsay feeling "stoked" recently, it's nice but I won't put too much weight on that, because the guy has looked stoked all the time in the past few years. It's his default look.
(20min delay)