I noticed a stock up 30% today on news, so I had a look. I know...

I noticed a stock up 30% today on news, so I had a look. I know you can't directly compare resource stocks to technology stocks but it surprised me how much this stock rose on this news.
The market cap of BVS is now $562mill, up 30% on the day. It seems to have surprised on the upside but for that you get an EBITDA around breakeven and a negative NPAT (from a different slide than the one shown below). While the EBITDA is trending up, revenue fell so the increased EBITDA was achieved by a reduction in costs despite the drop in revenue. Can costs reduce further to drive more EBITDA growth and will revenue decline again?
It amazes me that this gained 30% today but I don't know the stock so I could easily be missing something that the market liked.




Tech stocks are certainly not the easiest to analyse and nearly impossible for us mere mortals to predict their future earnings with any confidence at all.
While we also can't be sure what a resource stock like MNB will earn, they certainly are much easier to analyse.
Make a few basic assumptions with guidance from a DFS on sales volumes and cash costs, adjust for a safety buffer if preferred and make a commodity price assumption, again keeping it conservative and hopefully being surprised on the upside later.
I think we would all end up with a much larger EBITDA than the one for the $560mill market cap example above, with large upside later from the green ammonia as well as upside potential from sales to South Africa and possibly from the P4. It's not just tech stocks that have big upside potential.
The tech stock example will probably have a very high PE for next year's earnings. It could be 100x if next year's NPAT turns positive to around $5mill. MNB's PE on next year's earnings would probably be very low single digit using today's market cap but still offer very high future growth.