I appreciate the viewpoint, but I would opine that in my scanty and unenlightened overview of the ASX, I have never noticed conversions of options when the oppies are about to expire, and are under water.
I get what you mean that a large clutch of held options means the holder can definitely acquire heads at a set price of $8.00 (and not have to compete on the open market, where a largish acquisition would presumably push up the heads' SP), but ...
...if by early-to-mid December, the AVRO's look likely to finish underwater (and before any presumable interested AVRO holder starts a last-minute conversion) then the market preception will be - oh well, oppies aren't going to contribute to the company's liquidity, therefore more CR's, therefore more shareholder pessimism, and therefore the heads' SP will drop waaaay below $8.00.
Having muttered thusly, I will throw in some reckless - if not optimism, at least a strange precedent:
(figures are approximate, the best of my unchecked memory)
a few years ago I held oppies in a biotech - heads' ASX code was BLT ('Benitec' ?).
Oppies had about 4 weeks before expiry, heads SP was about $0.30 (?), my oppies conversion price was about $2.00.
Couldn't give them away.
BLT price suddenly skyrocketed to $2.40+, oppies in the money. I did in fact sell them, albeit a week too soon.
So, strange things happen.
But this time around? December 2021 AVRO?
This punk is not feeling lucky.
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