I'm interested to hear more from management, I am kind of not sure if I should derisk or top up at this stage. I still believe the long term story of QPM but I think its clear short to mid term its been completely debunked.
Piechart was pointing out nickel and cobalt price slumps months ago, we all knew about cost increases, interest rates speak for themselves, now the dollar tanked and China is looking less likely to need much nickel given how grim its looking there.
The one thing I will say though is: It always looks like this in a bear market, thats why they exist. Come next year if we see one or two of the things impacting QPM reverse then it becomes a super viable business again.
Our challenge is literally everything that made QPM a good investment changed during the delay. If we had funded this time last year we wouldnt be having this discussion, the delays, as with every other company this happens to, changed the entire game and the numbers went from good to bad.
QPM could've taken interest rates, or nickel prices, or cost increases, or economic downturn, just not all at once.
Realistically I want to buy more but I am also running low on patience now, I've had a long term view on QPM for 2 years now, am I keen to hold that risk for the next 2 years and watch the market behave exactly the same again? Thats the real question everyone holding should be asking, not whether QPM is good or run by good people etc, but whether materially the company still has a good proposition and whether during your investment horizon the things impeding it are removed. The company in my opinion has proved it can deliver and the management team can build value, what it has also proved is that that really means nothing if the underlying hypothesis doesent stack up anymore.
I think QPM has just become a 12 month spec play from a 3-6 month balanced risk. Its like we are back to pre-AFS again in my opinion. So everyone just has to assess whether thats what they want to be in at the moment or not.
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