Ann: Capital Raising Brings in Strategic Investor SMT, page-151

Management have, at face value, killed this project from an investment point of view. Any LTH who bought and held in the last 2.5 years is now at a loss.

Management can do two things going forward:
1. Give more fluffy information like the presentation (like a duck above water whose feet are paddling like mad) and no-one believes anything they say. or
2. be brutally honest with shareholders and put forward a 5-step plan with timelines going forward and lay out EXACTLY why that plan has value to shareholders.

Either way: all investors have called bulls***, taken a massive loss and will likely sit on the sidelines until FID when we can make an informed investment decision. This is now loss-po*n for retail.

My concerns:
1. nickel price assumption still at $25k/t - currently dipping below $20k in a downward trend.
2. cobalt price assumption a whopping $62k/t - currently half that.
3. USD to AUD slipping to low 60's
4. TECH dependant on MGP financials (probably to offset above) - a $1b capex asset sold to QPME for penny's on the dollar now must make the TECH project feasible. If the MGP is so great, why was it sold so cheap, and needs all the extra investment - what is the real return here?
-none of the numbers are making sense anymore-
5. Offtake partners need the stuff TECH produces, they are securing their supply chain, not making investment choices that will return capital growth. If this doesn't get up, they will go to China or Indo and deal with any bad press.
6. Dilution is now untenable for this investment. Raising at 10c with a share price at 10c had 2-3 times upside which was my worst case scenario. Raising equity now is past the threshold for this to mathematically make sense, even on an extremely long term basis.

The only way this comes back, is government intervention to actually build the project, and once complete, it won't be profitable in any meaningful way because the creditors will take all of it.
OR
management has a wildcard (doubtful).

Large funds are moving back to certain growth stocks (ALU, etc) but as China inches closer to their 'sub-prime' mortgage default in which Xi pulls the trigger on a nearby island before the house prices crash as a way to bait-and-switch the shrinking population, all bets are off.

Cash is King so I'm off to buy a new mattress. SG always said the TECH was about timing, but they've missed the window.