I feel like no one wants any positives right now but as I live in a different timezone and only just had a chance to fully read the announcements, I think theres some upsides that make me want to hold on and top up that I want to highlight for those of you who chose to hold on today:
1. MGP is going ahead with 9 wells starting in October which explains some of the up front money needed as they are about to undertake a 30M per Quarter opex business so couldnt really do that with 16M in the bank. They acknowledge the delay and have made it clear they still intend to progress immediately.
2. The people who are really involved like LG Posco, GM, and SMT are supporting this raise as you would expect with substantial contributions. Large companies dont just throw away millions of dollars as the investment teams are usually audited closely in my experience (working with GM anyway, SMT is probably pretty loose).
3. We now have a clear explanation of their rationale for the timeline and a pretty decent breakdown of where the money is going. This also demonstrates a clear priority on getting Tech done as 25M is pretty much the biggest line. I feel like RPM may be dragging their feet on this one potentially but regardless we can expect some news especially if DD progresses.
4. While people think the SPP is bad its actually pretty good considering the options on top of shares at 7c (according to my maths that makes a risked value of the deal something like a 6c purchase price or slightly below depending on your view of the 10c option value at present). Its likely we do see some recovery from here as panic wears off and people buy the discount in acknowledgement that with QPME QPM could potentially be break even / profitable sometime next year discounting Tech. Also if market turns at all and acquisition happens before september 11 then it becomes a pretty good deal which isnt unreasonable as china is designing stimulus right now (lipstick on a pig comments notwithstanding)
5. We could still see Korean commitments before end of year as K-sure is still in the mix.
6. Government support is still not out of the question.
Downsides: -no real timeline for FID or DFS which is a bit annoying but you can put 2 and 2 together and assume DFS required for debt DD and hence FID would be early H2 next year. For me this is now my absolute final straw deadline and if this is missed I'm out for good.
>10% dilution which is just tedious to be honest but whatever, I want to buy more than 10% more shares anyway.
Keep your heads up, I expect I wont see quite a few of you in this thread again but to those who are holding, I think its a time to just take a break from the market after you make your top ups or diversification trades and just keep this in the back pocket to check back in december.
For my sentiment after reading the announcements in detail and what others have said above: QPM is still a billion dollar business its just a few months further away provided a couple of things go right and the global economic paradigm doesent literally collapse. In my opinion if you dont think nickel prices will improve and construction prices / interest rates will improve then start building a bunker with the QPM shares you sell. We are in a bear cycle, nothing more, this was bad news on a bad day, in a bad quarter, in a bad year.
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