I guess the point is you need to consider case 3:
- Apply for $10x in SPP
- Scaled back - only get $1x (plus SFA oppies)
- Get $9x sent back a month later
- Spend it on market @ 20c
- End up with less than if you just spent $10x on market today
If we hit gas you're worse off. If we don't, you can take solace in not exercising your SFA opps.
The opportunity cost related to scale back uncertainty matters.
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I guess the point is you need to consider case 3:- Apply for...
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