Another thought for ELDPA holders. Many here are thinking Elders...

Another thought for ELDPA holders. Many here are thinking Elders will be forced to redeem at around $110 before before ordinary holders receive dividends which is forecast to be a year from now. That would be ~15%, sounds good, but would Elders really do that?
From my understanding the obligation is they cannot pay dividends to ordinary holders unless they are paying interest to hybrid holders. There is nothing about paying 12 months worth of interest to hybrid holders before they can start paying ordinary dividends, so they won't.
The hybrid holders will get their interest payments at the same time (or just before) ordinary holders get their dividends.
Thus in 12 months time Elders will start to pay ELDPA holders quarterly payments ~9.5%
in 24 months time from now they would have paid 12 months of interest and they they can redeem the units at face value. The PA holders will get their ~15% just that return will be over 2 years, not 1 that some are expecting.