The challenge in Summer 2024 and onwards is that there are several large scale battery projects currently being commissioned in Qld such as Chinchilla, Kidston pumped hydro is due to begin commissioning in October, plus there's a few wind farms such as Clarke Creek & MacIntyre, Swanbank and Brendale Supernode batteries early next yr (Qld wind production is generally highest 7-9pm, it mirrors the Southern states).
All those will be directly competing with gas in the evening peaking space, which is likely to result in a downward shift in the evening price because their input costs are lower and they can respond faster. I think it's pretty clear at this point that TPS needs a power price above $150/MW to start, no good burning the gas if they only make a loss on the generation.
