AVR 0.00% $17.05 anteris technologies ltd

Ann: CardioCel and VascuCel rights sold to LeMaitre Vascular, page-103

  1. 1,426 Posts.
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    This is exactly how I feel.

    Now I have had time to think about this so called "deal" that's how I actually think about it as well.

    Why wasn't it done back in 2016 - even earlier - when the ADAPT failure rate was (apparently) first realised? And the inhouse model clearly wasn't delivering on the expected sales growth of ADAPT. Figures on the slow uptake of ADAPT would have been in by then.
    Instead management and the new BOD went on a "double down on the inhouse model' with Code Red and effectively ripped up tens of millions of shareholders funds.
    The evidence for that is in the SP and the market cap at the time of 2016 as well as the amount of capital raised in those 3 years. Versus the current market cap now.
    Do the math : even after this so called 36.2M "deal" -including all earnouts....(none of which is actually banked yet) the market cap remains at the close of trading today precisely that. $35.44 million.

    So this values all the past efforts to float, build the Aussie production and sales team, "build the next CSL", and all other mantra of previous spin and tweets... (remember Vision 2020 and "all aboard the train" )?? let alone the recent efforts... the 6 months of angst in suspension to put this deal together (after that disasterous last CR) This currently values (at the close of trade today) all that as the big fat sum of zero. So I still claim I have called that out correctly in the past. It first listed ...when? around 2008-9 with a market cap around 35 million (could have even been a bit more) and what is it 10 years later?... Now the cash flow positive infusions and now full ADAPT production and sales is gone? It's been one big waste of shareholders funds. There is no denying that now. I don't call this "a win" for shareholders over the last 10 years.

    So who is right on the current valuation of the remaining IP and "TAVR"?

    A bunch of fan boys on HC? Or Mr Market?

    This "valuation of TAVR" and IP won't change IMO until the devil of the detail is explained... ... cash flow

    That's what has brought this company to near insolvency, delivering an atrocious outcome of negative capital growth for all exisiing shareholders over the years, and that is what will remain the cloud over the future of this management team. (Negative cash flow)

    Just what is going to be the negative cash flow "developing and bringing TAVR to market"?...given at the end of the the day, the same team that doubled down on inhouse code red, delivering that terrible past 4C guidance etc etc are basically still there. What will be the shut down and redundancy costs of the Australian production facility? What will be the ongoing costs of managements and senior TAVR development teams - should the AUD continue to fall? etc etc

    To say this outcome today is some sort "Golden elephant stamp" and praise for the wonders of the management of AHZ ltd during the past couple of years, and that the sceptics of WP's management "should eat humble pie" is frankly laughable IMO. Will there be an apology to everyone who has lost money over the last 4-5 years? I have my doubts.

    Sure - if today's "deal" had involved their resignations...sure.. I would be pumped.. but it doesn't -

    I state again.

    The same team and BOD who brought you all the horrors since 2016, are still there.

    Having said that - it is possible they have learnt (at least something).... and I do give them credit for finally "getting it" that further dilution of the capital base of shareholders (by issuing further stock) was clearly not going to fly and out of the question.

    Yes. I got that wrong. I thought they were going to do that this time again. They haven't - so I acknowledge that call was wrong.

    It doesn't of course mean they won't do it again - but yes I also acknowledge this "deal" bides them time. Time of course, will tell if they can really pull TVAR off without further cash problems in the future.

    At best they have saved a complete burning and RI's backsides...I give them credit for that as well. It's allowed the stock to trade again and give shareholders a chance to weigh up their risks. In essence it at least gives RI's a chance to exit the stock (should they wish) and offset their losses.

    At worst it's thrown yet another temptation carrot at holders.

    Take your pick.

    That's why we have a market and I respect them for at least appreciating that.

    Good luck with it. Let's hope further clarification is released on just how they intend to pull off TAVR. And what it will cost.

    I sincerely hope you can do better with this crowd than I ever have.

    All the best to RI's. You deserve it. You at least have been given a chance to choose.

    NA/IMO.
 
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