SAR 0.00% $4.69 saracen mineral holdings limited

Ann: Carosue Dam and Thunderbox only - Reserves rise to 3.7Moz, page-73

  1. 12,259 Posts.
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    Seeing as you mention Walt Disney (which is apparently one of the covid 19 loser stocks), let's take a look. Market cap of $US 237 billion. Current share price of $US 131 per share. In the quarter ending June of 2020 it made a loss of $4.7 billion yet its share price is racing back to pre-covid highs. In the same quarter of last year (2019), prior to the virus, it only made net income of $US 1.4 billion. That means in the course of continuing operations, even without the pandemic, it would need to operate for 42 years to make its current market capitalisation. I doubt theme parks will even be a thing in 42 years time if we see another pandemic like this one (or a worse pandemic) or if the current virus happens to mutate and become more deadly due to being allowed to spread through the US unchecked.

    Maybe you don't understand basic numbers. The US is currently printing money at a rate of $0.546 trillion per month according to its own treasury statements. Its GDP is currently running at $19.4 trillion on an annualised basis. Put another way the value of all finished goods produced and services provided is currently running at $1.6 trillion per month compared to a rate of money printing of $0.546 trillion per month.

    ie they are printing money at a rate of 34% of their economies ability to produce. Where do you think their economy and markets would be without this printing?

    Equities are risk assets. SAR is an equity therefore it is a risk asset. When people start understanding that Fed can't backstop markets and economies forever with money created out of thin air US government bonds will be sold and the dollar will be sold. The dollar is the only thing which provides liquidity to these over valued markets and when it is sold the equity markets and asset prices will collapse. As we saw in March when this happens everything gets sold, including gold. Gold equities get sold much harder and in line with the broader market selling. If you don't believe me go back and look what happened in March. In fact the GDXJ got sold even harder than the broader equity markets.

    The virus has infected about 5 million people in the US according to official figures. The true rate of infection is probably closer to 10 times that amount or about 50 million. To get to herd immunity (60% infected), another 146 million people in the US need to be infected. At the current rate of infection, assuming as above that ten times more people have had it than the official numbers suggest, that will take roughly another 14 months to 15 months. Throw in an election that by all accounts will be muddied through GOP interference with the functioning of the postal system and the potential for a Democrat victory leading to even more money printing and it doesn't take a rhode scholar to see that the bubble equity markets are headed for a brutal fall in the next 12 months, probably much sooner.

    As I said if you are happy to sit on a time bomb that's your choice.Esh
    Last edited by eshmun: 14/08/20
 
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