Ann: Cayley Lode - Another Monster Copper-Gold Hit, page-73

First 73 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Trifke

399 Posts.

52

11/02/21

10:06

Post #: 50886127
Share

Originally posted by Kalenn: ↑

Yes, my early rough numbers:
Valuation assumptions May 2020 :
Assuming they do NOT find the main target porphyry.
10M t @ 2% copper. Not all of this will turn up in JORC later this year but expected over the next 12 months drilling.
200,000 t contained copper with a US$2000 per tonne post tax profit. (Assuming a US$300M plant)
A$600M NPV discounted for takeover to A$400M.
Currently 220M Shares on Issue (SOI) but allowing 300M as I believe they will want to raise more capital around end of 2020 early 2021 if they get a good sniff of the porphyry.
Hence, price target A$1.33 with a 12 mth window.Most likely sooner and higher but keeping it very conservative.
If they find the porphyry (I personally think they will) then time frames out longer than 12 months but valuations up a lot. It's also quite possible that an opportunistic bidder could jump early to catch it cheaper than they might if they do a substantial drilling campaign on finding the porphyry.

If they have many more like this mornings results it could well go beyond 10M tonnes without the porphyry as well. I can't see risk in this unless u are a day trader. As an investor, it suits me well

Expand

Hey @Kalenn last year you did a pretty good rough estimate on the resource. I was wondering if you could share your thoughts on this now given so much has changed?
My notes:

--- Price of Copper was around $5000 a tonne in May 2020 and is now around $8000 a tonne ( 60% increase ).

--- Would it be as simple as adding 60% to the price based on the above numbers? Giving you a share price of $2.12? this would be huge as its ONLY based on the shallow resource.

--- What would be your calculations now be with what we know? And what does the added gold found do to your price? ( I know we only have very limited information regarding the gold. )

Would begreat if you could share your thoughts on your rough numbers again

Cheers
Trifke

SVY Price at posting: 69.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
10 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply