CCR 0.00% 32.5¢ credit clear limited

Ann: CCR - Morgan Stanley Latest & Greatest in IPOs Presentation, page-37

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  1. 2,126 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1777
    So, we were chatting about who this ASX20 client could be, and we've come up with a few names as to who would actually want a service like what CCR does.

    Broadly speaking, the companies that have some sort of collectibles would include..

    ANZ - bank
    CBA - bank
    IAG - insurance
    MQG - bank
    NAB - bank
    SUN - insurance,banking,super
    TLS - telecom
    WBC - bank

    Our guess is that its either IAG or SUN.

    IAG Financials for 1H21

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3051/3051919-c3f42521d2d08492ed820bae507b6209.jpg
    Going off their underwriting profit of AUD566m, with a 10% fee to CCR (would love someone to fact check that. I'm just going off what someone wrote in some earlier DD) , that's a cool 56m in revenue to CCR.. (or a very very rough $0.354 of value added to the SP, using a 158m SOI). Unless CCR's fee is charged on the GROSS WRITTEN PREMIUM, which of course is much larger. So at ~6B, you're looking at very roughly 600m in revenue to CCR (which then translate very very roughly to about $3.79 of value to the SP, again using a 158m SOI)

    If you used a very rough 30% profit margin at CCR (less any OPEX which = ~70% on gross revenue, please fact check), using the underwriting profit of 566m, 10% fee = 56m, 30% net profit would be 16.8m, which adds $0.106 to the SP.

    Similarly, if you used the gross written premium, @ 600m revenue, 30% profit margin = 180m, which roughly adds ~$1.14 to the SP.

    SUN Financials for HY21

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3051/3051970-b2ca5ab8e024fce5307efcf84b72ca4a.jpg

    Similarly, if we used the value from premiums received at 5.98b, 10% (again, please fact check this) puts it at 598m (or $3.78 of value added to the SP)

    If we used 30% profit margin (like before), 30% on 598m = 179.4m, using 158m SOI, that roughly translates to $1.135 in value added to the SP.

    So its pretty safe to say, that which ever client we sign from the ASX20, if their collectibles (in terms of premiums) are in the 4-5B zone, and CCR charges 10% on that, we're looking to add at least $1 in value to the current SP.

    Please DYOR and fact check my numbers!!
 
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