"You do realise that the $12b or total market opportunity refers...

"You do realise that the $12b or total market opportunity refers to the value of tests." Yes I do, and I also see that the most recent analysis shows licensing revenue in FY24 as about $17m which is about 0.1% of the total market opportunity in Europe. Call me reckless but to me that stinks of an analyst playing it cautious.

If they are out there selling kits into the European market then I think a reasonable share of the market would be say 10% which is $1.2b less expenses. If they go pure licensing then I reckon a 1% clip would be reasonable which would give them net $120m. Just to be conservative give them only a quarter of the market and even then the licensing charge should be about twice what the analyst used in her model.

And yes, ColoSTAT is a threat to Sonic's current business as it can wipe out the FIT market which Sonic plays in.