re: Ann: Ceasing to be a substantial holder f...
Pretty lacklustre annual results with a pretty good 1st half partly offset by a backwards y.o.y. result for the 2nd half.
My earlier estimates for the year were about 4% short of the actual result, but the final dividend of 14c, for a payout ratio of 91% well and truly exceeded my estimate of 9.5c. Such a high payout ratio is totally out of character for MCP - perhaps the Board was trying to offset investor sentiment to the ordinary annual profit result?
Anyway, I think it is fair to assume that in common with other stocks in the sector this current year is only going to be tougher for MCP.
At this early stage I will stick my neck out and say that 2011/2012 annual sales will be down 12.7% y.o.y, EBIT down 6% and full year NPAT of about $25-$26mio, down about 7%. Total dividend of about 36c.
These numbers provide for a price target of $2.70, based on a pe of 7.5
MCP Price at posting:
$2.83 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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