If I remember correctly the internal valuation was above $900...

If I remember correctly the internal valuation was above $900 million. I'm guessing that was AUD not USD, which would be a very conservative number in my opinion.

Potential dilution is always a huge factor when investing in clinical stage companies.

Here's how I look at it: Let's say the shares outstanding will be on the very high end of expectations with 30 million at commercialization. That would mean in the next 4 years the company burned through $230 million more than the money it will get from warrant exercises and DurAVR reimbursements for trials and what current cash is on hand.

I think that would be the worst case dilution scenario. In that scenario, how many DurAVR's would need to be sold to justify the current market cap if there were 30 million shares outstanding?

With 30 million shares, the current market cap would be $670 million (still less than the company's internal valuation). Edwards generally trades at a price to sales of around 10 so using that multiple means that we would need $67 million in revenue to justify that $670 million. I think the sales price for each DurAVR should be about $60,000 AUD at commercialization some time in 2027 (depending on the USD/AUD conversion rate), which would mean we would need to sell 1,116 DurAVR's to justify the current cap. And the US TAVR market will likely be 120,000 procedures or more in 2027.

So to justify a future where dilution runs wild and we end up with 30 million shares outstanding at commercialization, we would only need to capture 0.93% percent of the market. That means by my calculations when you are buying AVR today, you are paying for less than 1% of market share worst case scenario and any more market share (or with lesser dilution) is upside. That to me is the big picture.

I get frustrated with Wayne as well but when I put his showmanship aside and take a hard, realistic look at the future, the stock still looks incredibly undervalued to me. But that's just the way I see it. I'm definitely not god's gift to investing so everybody has to make their own assessments.

My experience with long-term clinical-stage investing is to only have as much money in the stock that you feel comfortable letting ride until the company hits the end of your targeted timeline, which for Anteris means at least another 4-5 years for me. If you're uncomfortable with your position, sell some to get to your comfort zone and put the money elsewhere.