Ann: Ceasing to be a substantial holder, page-10

The below is from UBS. Let's hope BRL can rally if the coal price does start to go up. Still think cash (or lack of) and Hamish are the major issues.
Met Coal: Cuts accelerating but more needed
Low prices & mounting losses have led to a spate of mine closures in the seaborne met coal trade. In the period 2012-2014YTD announced cuts total 25Mtpa, including 14Mtpa in 2014. These shuts are starting to reduce trade flows; North American met-coal exports have declined 6%yoy in 2014. We estimate & model a further 5-10Mtpa are needed to balance the market and a precondition to price recovery. We forecast a lift in top grade met-coal spot to US$120/t fob in 2014H2 and US$131/t fob in 2015.
Thermal Coal: Cuts elusive, but China & Indonesia government policy matters
Mine closures announced to date in thermal are smaller than met coal in aggregate tonnage and proportion of the seaborne trade. Oversupply continues to weigh on prices. We forecast a flattish Newcastle spot thermal coal price of US$71/t fob in 2014H2, lifting to US$77/t in 2015, with modest demand growth slowing absorbing global coal surpluses. But there are catalysts for change. New coal policy in China may see an attempt to coordinate a 10% industry wide cut. Just a 1% cut here would equate to 4% of seaborne trade. Elsewhere Indonesia's government plans to regulate the trade to combat illegal mining & cap production at 400Mtpa to support prices.
A 6-12mth lag for prices to respond to shuts
Volume reductions lag announced cuts as mines take time to close & inventory is then liquidated. The coal trade is massive & overwhelmingly physically backed. This also means cuts will also take time to report to coal prices. Differs to smaller markets subject to speculative trade such as Nickel where prices lifted immediately on the Indonesian export ban. Equities may rally ahead of any lift in coal prices.