That's a very valid question and to be honest, I think the decline HAS been market driven and the sell off reflects the very fact that no-one has an interest in buying this stock.
It's further reflected in the fact that the seller is a price taker who simply cannot afford to sit on the offer. He sells to whatever price is put up.
Market forces aside, I am negative on the management team for the way it has handles a number of "big picture" matters in recent years which - in my opinion only - have contributed to the broad market dis-interest in the Cokal story.
These matters include - telling us nothing, zero, zilch about the challenges the company faced in barging product down the Barito river until their actual scoping study was well underway....in hindsight, it was obvious from selling going on in 2011 that "someone" had intel on the barging issues a long time before it was ever a matter of public discussion by Cokal management. When they finally decided to inform the market, it was at a time when a scoping study had almost been finalised. This particular topic caused me to question the judgement of management - why were they keeping this close to their chest at the time?
Another matter of judgement was the way the Blumont takeover issue was managed. Why were Cokal management even "entertaining" discussions with these guys. When you see the debacle that occurred in the days after the scrip offer was made to Cokal management - and which Cokal didn't immediately comment upon, I again questioned their judgement. Did they not "eye-ball" these guys?! It looks very embarassing to have been involved with people who have overseen Blumont's demise.
Overiding these two particular issues has been the time it has taken this management team to progress this project. Its too slow.
I don't question their integrity, or their efforts - just the effectiveness of their efforts. That was a judgement I made - that they weren't as effective as they have needed to be, nor that their judgement is what it needs to be to build a green fields project in a nation like Indonesia. That is my "call" to make as a shareholder. Simply put, I lost faith in the quality of the management team.
And lets not forget...they are being well remunerated, and so, I expect a lot more in the way of meaningful outputs than what we have seen over the last 3 years.
In summary, the market has played its part, but so too has Cokal management. I'm glad I got out. I was lucky (or maybe I was just satisfied with my profits) but in the time since, I've not been enamoured by what has transpired.
Anyway - just trying to be honest. I hope it is useful.
