I reckon to achieve a market cap of $615m (where share price is...

I reckon to achieve a market cap of  $615m (where share price is now) then this would assume an average price over the next 5-7 years of circa USD4.65-5.00/lb.

This is a back of the envelope based on cash cost/lb of AUD2.55, sustaining capex of circa AUD1,050-1,100 per tonne, annual nickel tonnes of circa 23,000T with payable at 90%. Add in corp costs of $18m pa, tax at 30%, a discount rate of 10% post tax, plus net debt of $100m.

This places no value on projects other than Flying Fox and Spotted Quol. So there would be an implied value for those (not sure what the implied price per tonne any deals for similar assets might have been done at) - and the value of those would grow rapidly at higher metal prices.

If price stayed at USD4.40/lb for the whole life I would get a rough $1.80-2.00/share, but one would assume that is low over the longer term. $2.00 might be psychological so a bounce off that level I might buy more. If I flexed to USD6/lb then I could easily see around $3.50-4/share (I struggle to see much more upside at USD6 than that, but if we got back to where we were a few years ago, say USD8/lb+, then we would be worth say $5+, but noones forecasting anything like that presently I don't believe).

Due to this I see more upside potential than downside potential, but the downside risk I definitely think is there. I am invested at a bit more than the current price (circa $2.40).

Just some very rough numbers, what do others think and why?

Simply some thoughts to provoke thought, DYOR