Ann: Ceasing to be a substantial holder, page-19

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Tazaus

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06/08/17

16:54

Post #: 26321436
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Originally posted by Sultanofsultana ↑

This stock will continue he to fall based on ag economics 101 and a perfect storm of good luck for the local industry.
It's worth 10-12 cents a share in an insolvency event unless management and board are replaced promptly.

Three seasons of freakishly good growing conditions and unusually high global prices set on the back drop of Turkish general elections.
The bourse in Izmir trades sultanas at 1pm daily. This sets the global price as they are the largest producer on the planet. Australia imports around 24,000mt of Turkey each year.
Two years ago the government owned co op went into buy mode to drive up prices to please the 8 million sultana farmers and there families. Good old fashioned vote buying.
Same with Turkish hazelnuts ( 82% of global demand) and Turkish apricots (75% of global demand).
Prices rallied up to usd2650 per mt. More expensive than Australian sultanas which is a once In a generation event.
Repeat once In a generation event.

Previous to this the only sales of sultana businesses inaustralia were insolvencies or mergers because nobody made money.
Sunbeam made its first profit in decades and promptly sold to Manassen foods.

Now that endogan is power for a prolonged period, prices have collapsed to usd1100 per mt and the government owned co operative will commence selling off large Inventories at any price.
The new crop forecast to harvest in September looks like the largest crop in history. >400,000mt. Iran is now tending to there vineyards as sanctions have finished and they are expecting a 220,000mt crop. India is now a net exporter and expects to sell 80,000mt into the export market along with Afghanistan who has been assisted by Australian government in growing and processing sultanas and raisins as part of the rebuild program. 125,000mt.
Along with the usually others who have increased planting son the back of several years of high prices.
( Uzbekistan, China, Chile, South Africa etc etc).
Expected price formturkish new crop is usd750per mt or and aud1.00 per kg. ...........vs do,rustic production cost of circa 3.20 per kg.
you don't need to be an economist to work out why the vendors were exiting.
I'm guessing like there two previous business'. Maurice and Blackburn or slater and Gordon will shortly be following along as there is a consistent pattern of the directors exiting there business and litigation following.

Turkey leads the world in processing and cleaning fruit, Australia uses not even yesterday technology apart from one private player who north a production line from turkey.
With all these factors, sultanas will be cheap for the next 3-5 years at least and Australia will never compete. This seasons quality in Australian looks like a disaster so you would be much better offer with imported fruit and it's probably half the price.
It's always easier to sell a cheap high quality product than an expensive low quality product.
This stock is looking like a low gliding brick

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would like to chat with you.

MRG Price at posting: 40.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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