Ann: Ceasing to be a substantial holder, page-4

Not really, G650er. Cotton is a summercrop, which is currently getting picked or close to it, and the majority of this years' crop is irrigated (and thus has enough moisture); there is barely any dryland cotton this year due to the climatic conditions. Wheat and barley are wintercrops and are therefore not planted / growing at this specific time.

Sorghum on the other hand, is majority dryland and there is only a very small amount of it grown this year with quality and quantity expected to be a mixed bag. Queensland for example, a big net exporter of grains, has already received 2 shipments of wheat and barley from South Australia this year as feedlots and other users have started to cover their position instead of relying on a sorghum harvest that might not be as big as hoped.

Where sorghum and wheat / barely prices are closely linked due to a similarity in the markets they service (feedlots etc.) and a premium is paid only for those shipments that can be used for premium purposes (e.g. malting for barley and flour for wheat), so these prices mostly move up and down together. The cotton price has different fundamentals all together.

Prices for wheat and barley are not great at the moment, which is all decided by the world market price, but where last year chickpeas were a great alternative for growers, the 40% import tariff imposed by India means there is less prospect for a large and highly profitable chickpea harvest. If growers are able to plant a winter crop, wheat, barely, chickpeas etc. will be planted regardless of price; growers are not going to leave paddocks empty that they are able to plant. All these commodities will come through graincorp (or their competitors), regardless of price. As long as they get planted...

Main factor that will be of importance for GNC however is the rainfall over the next 6 weeks in the main cropping areas of Eastern Australia. Most dryland wintercrop growers have received little to no rainfall since last wintercrop harvest and their moisture profiles are extremely low to non-existent. Unless we get significant (10 inches or more in total for most areas) rainfall in the next month to 2 months, growers will get in trouble with their planting window for winter crops.

Don't get me wrong - I do hold GNC shares and I have topped up recently, but I also work in Ag and live in rural NW NSW so I know what the prospects are like. Not even for the sake of GNC or my shares, but more for the sake of all farmers, I hope we get significant rain soon.

Cheers