Ann: Ceasing to be a substantial holder, page-55

@sabine I'd agree with needing to know a credible co has bought in before popping a bottle or two. The last few months have taught everyone an important lesson. The need to understand not only your direct investment but also your investment's customers, their financial position and their customers too. Pls' recent announcement highlights this further.
As a start I would read through Gangfeng and Tianqi's respective IPO prospectuses. Sure they are sales materials but they are considerably more detailed then anything else you will find in a single document publicly available. Im sure similar is available for Posco albeit probably a little dated.
Understanding the customers' financial position, working capital, capex/expanion plans can give a degree of comfort or alternatively raise alarm bells.
I included Tianqi because they are one of the largest producers of lithium derivative products and have ambitious expansion plans both in mainland china and wa (Kwinana hydroxide) yet were downgraded by Moody's last week. As we have learned, an offtake contract is only as good as your offtaker's ability / willingness to take the product. If they dont the product is open to anyone willing to take it. Selling openly in the current arguably short term spodumene oversupply is a low returning exercise.
Tianqi was downgraded to Ba2 (prev Baa3) as the company wasn't able to deleverage enough following their buyinto sqm. They own 51% of Talison (lowest cost spod producer globally) which is expanding to supply both the Albemarle (kemerton) and Tianqi's (kwinana) hydroxide facilities. It will be interesting to see whether the timelines line up between Talison and Tianqi/Albemarle hydroxide plants. If it doesn't the spod will need to continue going to china, and a lot of it. Can Tianqi continue on its heavy capex trajectory amidst falling prices? Who knows but it is interesting to read into it a little bit more.
The frustrating thing about doing a lot of research in this sector is the opaqueness of the chinese market. Its easy enough to build a flow chart for spod/brine supply and ev requirements at the other end, but everything in the middle hydroxide/carbonate/battery cells/cathodes is almost impossible given China's huge global share across these.
Anyways, all imo, encourage the constructive and more upbeat discussion of late on this forum.