I had a morning thought. If Apex has been simply 'included' in the revised scheme (as the prior announcement hinted) with no uplift in monies to the minority holders, it means the NEW scheme is of lessor financial value to the minority holders than the dissolved scheme.
That is, the delay in the implementation means keeping MORE EBITDA in the hands of the rollover class. That is... earnings that have been earned by OUR money (owners, 60%, minority shareholders) is simply gifted to rollover. You know the offer is based on Calendar Year 2019 performance. That is fact from the original buyout document. But, has anyone checked the current date - mid 2020, baby.
This game can go on forever. PEP (and now perhaps Apex) can, in a couple months, decide to bring, say danhoff, into the rollover group (they can use me for marketing and social media and the road to battery nirvana). So, in August, they can say 'oh, we need to rework the scheme to move danhoff to the rollover group'.... and price is still $1.01. And we will implement by December.
Then of course, in November, Arrow is brought in.
Then next March Southern in brought in,
then Aug 2021, Gareth joins the rollovers,
Nov 2021 Geeves joins,
Tinwins call for inclusion and is included in early 2022,
riskyrider blows up at missing the boat and then is included in late 2022,
marcus early 2023,
a rare sighting of woomp001 happens and he is included from mid 2023,
my Mrs actually has 1000 shares on her own (not in my super) prepared for the next cap raise, so she joins the rollovers early 2024
finally the scheme is ready to proceed in mid 2024 (at $1.01, of course), with all earnings between 2019 and 2024 rolled over into the pockets of the final rollover group. Hey, now I know why they are called the Rollover group. Because OUR EARNINGS are being rolled over to them. But by 2024 the group is affectionately called pepapexdougramdanarrowsouthgarthtinriskmarcwoompmrs. Now the delay allows some of us to set up shop in the Cayman Islands (as some of our group already has).
My point: any new, revised scheme that does not have an uplift of offer is financially a lessor value scheme. Is that allowed? Heck, why not have the revised scheme be 90 cents... or 80 cents.
I better wait until Monday for the new scheme. I am having a bad mood as I type. And I dont want to get ahead of myself. Let me predice 88 cents plus 20 cents special, franked divvie (get the 2020 earnings in there). But I can be wrong. My Mrs will be OK with 1.2157 (or 1.2175). And funny enough, if you put the buyout metrics for 2019 onto the current 2020 earnings, you actually get that 1.21
I had a morning thought. If Apex has been simply 'included' in...
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