"Conservative is a bit of an overstatement" - Glad you said that because in a way that's my point! I wanted to distill my argument to highlight the single fact that even the conservative estimates are good enough to make investing above $1 (or $2 or $3) per share worthwhile. Fair play to everything else you said though, if the stars align the conservative estimates will be blown out of the water.
As for the $1 thing, I can empathize with their argument, see how they got there, and play the devils advocate for myself without necessarily agreeing with it. Finding a common ground before explaining a case helps get the message across.
I'm now realizing Kokoro is infamous around here and I walked into a bit of a trap! But I wouldn't change anything I said.
It doesn't need hype in the long run, and that's a good thing! As long as companies like NVX can generate value (and profit) then there is money to be made. Unless you think the industry might disappear because it isn't cracked out to be what people say it is, but then I'd point you back to the companies and governments investing billions. It's no joke.
There's real deals in the making, and NVX doesn't exist in a vacuum. The entire supply chain is ramping up, I doubt these companies would put the time and money into something they don't think they'll need. With the information we have on hand it would seem like you're betting against the most likely outcome. I don't invest in anything with 100% confidence and I'm happy to acknowledge risk, but I can't think of a better industry to speculate on right now. It makes sense to go with the flow.
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