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10:32
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Originally posted by valueinvesting:
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Good start- one shorter has existed; indicating positive turn. Fact of the matter is , over the years Syrah has struggled to deliver to its shareholders. only beneficiaries have been traders and shorter. I was long term shareholder in Syrah up until 2017, incurred huge loss, sold it and reentered again in 2020 during Covid low - averaging 16 cents, sold it, recouped 2016 losses and made modest profit. 2020 was scary time to invest in company like Syrah but i took risk based on ridiculous valuation- by memory it was around $180 million or less despite 50 plus years mine life, massive investment and infrastructure development worth of $500 million and it had significant shorting back then as well. Generally with Syrah, odds of bad news is higher than good news due to geopolitical risk, china dominance of graphite and nature of such markets, capital intensive and cyclical industry, thus making an easy target for shorters. But with China ban, it's fortune can be turned. Although I invested before china ban, average price of 41 cents for both personal and super investment, i just got mere lucky with the timing but my investment thesis still holds. Natural graphite is critical for green and clean energy transition. If one wonder, what about the risk of synthetic graphite replacing natural? Go and do the research on CO2 emissions from synthetic graphite production. Carbon footprint for producing synthetic is three times higher than the natural graphite. How can EV company can prefer synthetic over natural if latter is more cleaner? with recent china ban, business will look to diversify their supply chain and all i can say is Syrah is in best position to benefit from it.
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Shorts have not exited. They have just returned a small portion of the borrowed stock so that they are now below the 5% threshold for a substantial holder hence their ceasing notice.
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