here is the excerpt
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Commodity pundits are more upbeat about copper.
Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, forecasts copper production to slip 4 per cent this year as miners struggle with high costs and weakening quality.
First Quantum Minerals shut its Cobre Panama site, one of the world’s largest open-pit copper mines, late last year and Anglo American and Codelco cut annual guidance. Anglo American last week said it was reviewing its mining operations after a 94 per cent tumble in annual profit.
Bright outlook
At the same time, demand from China, the US, and India – three of the top five global consumers of copper – is expected to climb by 4.3 per cent this year.
“This is likely to see the copper market returning to deficit this year, which should underpin prices,” said Mr Hynes. He forecasts three-month copper contracts on the LME to reach $US10,000 per tonne in a year, from $US8560 currently. They fell $US8000 last year, but prices have started to rebound.
Mr Cleary is equally positive. saying: “We think copper will remain in deficit for most of the decade as major miners are having problems containing costs.”
The Tribeca fund manager cited “massive” cost blowouts at BHP, Rio Tinto, and South32 on base metal projects. He expected spot prices to bounce.
“You can buy copper producers in Australia and globally that are factoring in long-term prices below where we are. So the value, from a corporate equity perspective, is attractive to us,” he said.
Mr Berridge also said prices were more likely to go higher than lower over the next six months.
“The one thing you need to set the copper price alight is a sprinkling of demand surprises; a stronger US economy or China ramping up demand or higher global demand from the decarbonisation,” he said.
Mr Dhar said prices needed to be higher “to bring on enough copper”. But in the near term, it would be driven by demand from China. Copper is widely used in power, construction and transport sectors.
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