Ann: Ceasing to be a substantial holder, page-9

@Moneymaker1979The support will come when the Company finally gives proper guidance at the end of this current quarter.

I want you to think about the following . For the firsthalf of the next fiscal year to. December 2025 , Piper Sandler/Ed Tenthoff published a report in February 2025 , pencilling in sales of just $20m, which is implies Mesoblast will receive its usual $3m of Temcell royalties from Japan and then effectively treat just 13 patients in the same period to generate $17m of sales . Obviously back in February this year Ed Tenthoff had no idea that market penetration of hospitals, payer coverage and physician adoption would be at levels suggested by the latest June update. Indeed full coverage of Medicaid states from July 1st, represents close to 45% of the market by patients and a little less in terms of revenue, as they receive mandated discounts of 17% on paediatric patients . Piper Sandler were equally prudent with costs in their note allowing for SG&A for fiscal 26 of $82.5m which is pretty fair bearing in mind additional forthcoming clinical trial commitments .

In April 2025, John Hester of Bell Potter , blinked on his quarterly sales estimates for Ryoncil in the next fiscal year and decided to reduce his revenue forecast to just 10 patients to be treated in Q1, 12 patients in Q2, 14 Q3 and 16 Q4, fiscal y/e 6/ 26. More disturbing was his ramp up of costs in the year to 6/25 which has now been proven excessive by the actual numbers given in the latest 4C for cash burn. Indeed , to show you what a joke current forecasts probably are, Bell Potter is approx $30m higher on costs for next year than Piper Sandler, with also most $20m accounted for by allocating a much higher R&D budget of $60m for the period. Either of these analysts are perfectly justified to make a stab at sales because the Company apparently refuses to publicly commit to any forecasts at this juncture until they have greater visibility. Can you blame Mesoblast after the spurious lawsuits they have had to face ?
I would remind Mesoblast that to allow such large discrepancies in brokers forecasts must be only temporary as it is deeply unhelpful. The lack of consistent message is not in shareholders interests allowing shorters to have a field day. I assume Mesoblast must feel it is not their responsibility to correct brokers notes but when it comes to material differences in budgeted costs , I strongly disagree. Personally I believe that forecasting 4Q25 sales is a mugs game with so many moving parts and no previous sales history to go on. For that reason I can understand why they want to wait until the end of the latest quarter …but that is where I part company with their IR policy. As soon as the June sales numbers are available, they should be made available. No excuses, or you might unintentionally allow a false market in the shares to develop. In my opinion, post the trading update, analysts will probably be wanting to change their numbers as they are now likely to be too negative for the next fiscal year in my opinion .

I believe Mesoblast’s prospects are great and could be spectacular, with the latest proposed changes to the accelerated approval pathway . The first few months of educating physicians and onboarding key hospitals are behind them. They are the only approved treatment with an IP moat . Post the last trading update, to suggest that they will only treat 50 patients in the next fiscal year, is really lowballing the likely outcome . It should be at least double that number and the Company should be showing positive cash flows within months , not the large losses which form current market consensus forecasts.
Investor relations must be held culpable for major differences in SG&A forecasting. If there is one thing Mesoblast should know , it is how much money they are going to spend !

In conclusion, I believe the share price reflects out of date analyst consensus forecasts which still show large losses forecast for fiscal y/e 2026 before going in to profits the following year.. Mesoblast’s should move as quickly as possible, post the end of the quarter, to give the market clarity on likely market penetration and sales. In fact while they are it, they should switch to a December financial year end, which will allow more favourable comparisons with its peer group. I believe , the days of being a punchbag for shorters will shortly be over. OP



Please do not rely on the facts or opinions expressed in the above post when making an investment decision.