Alex has been keeping it tight at the front end for this very reason. Good to be invested in a company with a strategy and who keep the market updated consistently.
Value per share depends on Tarcoola/Central Gawler cash generation
The value per share depends on the amount of share issuance required to fund the project, and this is where Phase 1 becomes very important. The development of Tunkillia is likely to take four years to complete and require A$180M in equity at least for completing drilling, feasibility studies, and the equity to construct the project. If the Central Gawler processing plant can provide A$50M pa in cash flow, the call on Barton shareholders could be minimal.
SNAP!
VALUATION - MANY PATHWAYS TO A$100M CAPITALISATION
Barton has a lot of options, and most of the actual value creation will come from the drill bit so it is at the mercy of exploration success, and investors in the share price today are buying into the company's ability to deliver. Most of this report is about the valuation of speculative outcomes and providing the data to allow investors to see the construction of those estimates and decide for themselves if they make sense. Barton is trading at a market capitalisation of A$40-50M. What can it do to make the share price rise, in the first instance to generate a market capitalisation of A$100M, before going higher? Assuming a constant gold price, Barton would be worth A$100M if any of the following occurred: Increases in Resource to 2.5Moz and the market prices those ounces at A$40/oz Delivered of a Tarcoola discovery double the size of the historical Perseverance mine Delivery of a Preliminary Feasibility Study for a 5Mtpa Tunkillia project with IIR assumptions Signing a 10 year 650ktpa ore tolling deal with a margin of A$30/t Achieving any one of these in the current market is likely to be worth A$100M. If two of the last three events occurred, Barton would be worth A$200M. Note that the initial value of A$100M for the hypothetical Tunkillia project is at a real discount rate of 15% and its value would appreciate as it was de-risked and the discount rate reduced.
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