I think the way you are looking at it makes sense from a point of view of trying to examine the downside, the scenario where they have difficulty making the right acquisition. Even still those numbers didn't look that scary.
What seems clear is the online contact lenses market needs consolidation. If REF can't find the right acquisition maybe a larger player might need to just acquire REF instead. Could that limit the downside?
The scenario you outline where it could be viewed as expensive is still quite possible, yet is it probable? Looking at the very small acquisition they made in June, I don't think it requires a leap of faith to believe that they can find a reasonable larger acquisition at decent value to add on to the contact lens business. That could easily put them on reasonable multiples in a nicely growing market.
REF Price at posting:
11.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
