Sustained deterioration in US collection conditions - Increased repayment plan delinquencyemerged in Q4 FY23 - Elevateddelinquency persisted throughout Q1 FY24 Reforecast of remaining collections to reflect a continuation of these conditions over the medium term (3 years) - Estimated impairment of 14 per cent of FY24 opening US PDL book ($45 million NPAT) - Current year US segment NPAT outlook reduced by $10 million
I think that the Share price has held up remarkably well, considering that the company has lowered it's Earnings per share forecast by up to 60%. From the day of initial downgrade notification, shares traded above $17. Was that a fair price back then? If so, then a 60% decline in EPS should see this trade in the mid 8's. Delinquencies are increasing and should there be another rate rise or the U.S. falls into recession, then....
I mean like, the company has spelt it out. Over the past 6 months, it's been even tougher and whilst they may be able to increase their investable pipeline, if conditions worsen and delinquencies increase further, then I'd be expecting another downgrade.
From offering up initial EPS guidance of $1.32 then downgraded to an EPS of 51c - that's shocking and I don't believe that the market has fully priced this in yet.
Just wait for the downgrade in dividends. That usually prompts aussie investors one way or another.
CCP Price at posting:
$12.31 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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