DYOR. My views on potential catalysts and value drivers.
No specific financial advice intended and hence you are encouraged to do your own research.
Cash up after the $21M raise completed November and with the way forward for Estelle mapped out for 2021, I thought timely for an update on peer-based valuation and some peer-based price targets.
I've simplified the analysis. The top part of the analysis has been reduced to a comparison with 2 Australian and 2 North American assets that are all ASX-listed. CLZ was removed since their shares on issue had pushed past 17B shares on issue and the per ounce value was an outlier.
Peer average value per ounce of the 4 inferred peer assets is now at AUD $182 per ounce. This would value NVA's current resource at $0.31 per share ( based on 2.8 Moz which is on 85% ownership of 3.3 Moz ).
For comparison DEG and BGL with Measured and Indicated components of their resources are currently valued at AUD $557 per ounce and AUD $389 per ounce respectively. If NVA introduce further confidence in their resource with some M&I ounces as planned then we could see per-ounce valuation push to the $300+ range.
Company guidance from video interviews is to anticipate 5 Moz to 7 Moz in the next resource update, which we can expect in the "coming months". With further resource updates for Korbel and RPM later in the year we could see the resource pushed to the 7 Moz to 10 Moz range.
These are some speculative targets based on this analysis:
- H1 2021 a fair value share price range of $0.46 to $0.65 (assuming 5 Moz to 7 Moz resource defined)
- By end 2021 a fair value share price range of $0.65 to $0.96 (assuming 7 Moz to 10 Moz resource defined)
I've mapped these onto the chart below
5 Moz at fair value implies a potential for a 143% move in the SP.
7 Moz at fair value implies a potential for a 241% move in the SP.
10 Moz at fair value implies a potential for a 387% move in the SP.
Now if Nova introduce M&I ounces as planned, as noted above we could see per ounce valuation push to $300+ per ounce.
The below is very speculative as it would require the market to attribute better price-sentiment to NVA's project. The market has largely overlooked NVA due to misunderstanding of the economics of heap-leach deposits, however with PEA anticipated to show strong economics the market may pay better attention after the PEA due later in the year. Gold price will also be factor. We can expect higher grade drilling results from RPM which may help to excite the market. At better sentiment a very speculative target for 7 Moz to 10 Moz is $1.07 to $1.53 by year-end (based on $300 per ounce valuation, noting BGL is trading at $389 per ounce and DEG at $557 per ounce ).
Whether NVA trades within the blue band or within the orange band will depend on the following factors:
- Management success is telling the story (and they certainly made big improvements through 2021)
- Drill results for and growth of resource at Korbel
- Exploration at other prospects on the Estelle property and particularly at RPM
- Further test work and the results of the Preliminary PEA
- Global resource update by end of 2021
- Whether the gold bull market continues with strength. Will we see USD $2,300 to USD $2,500 by year end?
- Success of the Snow Lake IPO
The right mix of the above and I think NVA shareholders could be saying hello to $1.00+ by the end of 2021.
Note the gap between the two bands takes the SP to the $1.00 mark by the end of the year.
(20min delay)